“Negative Net Migration” Is a Good Thing

“We may be dealing with NEGATIVE NET MIGRATION to the United States in 2025!”  exclaimed chief data analyst Harry Enten, in a recent report on CNN. “That would be the first time there is negative net migration in this country in at least 50 years — we’re talking about down from 2.8 million in 2024.”

“Net migration” is the number of people entering a country minus those leaving it (excluding guest workers and those coming or going for short, temporary stays). Net annual migration into the U.S. reached its highest levels in history during the Biden administration. Most of the increase resulted from illegal immigration, which tripled in just a few years.

The Trump administration came into office determined to crack down on illegal immigration. Illegal crossings at the southern border are way down, formal deportations have increased, and a less permissive legal landscape seems to have led to hundreds of thousands of informal “self-deportations.” Still, legal immigration remains as high as ever, around 1.2 million annually, making actual net negative migration unlikely.

Net Negative Possible, But Unlikely

Less new illegal immigration, combined with more emigration by illegal migrants who came previously, will result in a greatly reduced net migration level for Donald Trump’s first year in office. That’s a good thing, as America couldn’t sustain immigration at the numbers we saw over the last few years.

But despite sensational headlines, the Trump administration’s enforcement actions are unlikely to actually result in more people leaving the U.S. than coming in. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: “net migration levels for 2025 are currently on track to be around 1.0 million — 1.6 million less than in 2024 and 2.5 million less than in 2023.”

Still, net negative migration may occur. Perhaps for a year or two, while the country course corrects after four years of failure to enforce reasonable limits on immigration.

A Necessary Course Correction

Lower immigration numbers, and even a few years of net negative migration into the U.S., would be beneficial for several reasons.

First, after four years of lax immigration enforcement, our nation needed a reset. It was imperative to re-establish the idea that those who break immigration laws will be required to leave. We needed re-establish the commonsense idea of limits to immigration, and that following our immigration laws is not a suggestion, but mandatory.

We must also deport (or cause to self-deport) a significant number of the estimated eight million illegal migrants who have entered the country over the past four years. This may seem harsh, but it is a problem brought on by the Biden administration’s failure to enforce our immigration laws. Americans cannot find common ground on bipartisan improvements to immigration policy without sending some of those eight million people back home.

Lower Immigration Benefits Workers

Second, decreased immigration benefits American workers. In fact, it is already doing so. While most new jobs created in recent years went to immigrants, during the past half year all the job growth measured went to native-born workers. The number of foreign-born workforce participants actually declined during the past half year, due to decreases in illegal workers.

Just as important, lowering immigration also drives up wages, for both native and foreign-born workers. Recent articles in the business press worry about decreased immigration leading to “increasing wage inflation.” And the San Francisco Fed concludes their recent study by saying: “Going forward, lower net migration will likely slow down the inflow of new workers, which will tend to increase labor market tightness and could increase upward wage pressures for some groups of workers.”

“Increasing wage inflation” and “upward wage pressures” are mainstream economists’ terms for what normal people, concerned for the wellbeing of their fellow citizens, call “higher wages for my friends and neighbors.”

Lower Immigration Protects the Environment

Third, lowering immigration is good for the environment. Immigration-driven population growth makes all our environmental problems more difficult, and ultimately impossible, to solve. Stabilizing America’s population is one key to creating a genuinely sustainable society.

A difference of a few million new immigrants, more or less, might seem unimportant in an overall U.S. population of 340 million. But as you can see in the graph below, relatively small annual population increases lead to big increases in total numbers in just a few years.

The difference between projecting out 1 million and 2.8 million annual net migration is immense: a population in 2100 of 370 million versus one of 591 million! It is also the difference between a population that has leveled out and stopped growing, and one that continues to gallop upward relentlessly.

Time for Congress to Weigh In

Whether we focus on improving conditions for American workers or preserving habitat for wildlife, embracing lower immigration (and even net negative migration for a few years) is key. But to avoid the wild pendulum swings we have recently seen, as one federal administration replaces another, Congress must act.

NumbersUSA’s “Six Great Solutions” are legislation that will help curb illegal immigration and reduce legal immigration to levels that create a fairer and more sustainable society. The American people want an orderly and stable reduction of immigration from recent excessive levels. It’s time to get that done.