Trump on immigration: “we need more people”

Over the weekend, Former President Trump told reporters that his administration would use immigration to help employers fill U.S. jobs:

Full transcript here.

Trump supports legal migration:

"We're going to let a lot of people come in, because we need more people, especially with AI coming and all the different things. And the farmers need, everybody needs but we're going to make sure they're not murderers and drug dealers…" pic.twitter.com/W5TfFpjMKM

— The American Conservative (@amconmag) August 15, 2024

Trump’s plan to increase immigration

While Trump’s comments in the clip above are not an explicit call for immigration increases, he has suggested that he would act as president to expand legal immigration by issuing green cards to every foreign student who graduates from a U.S. college or university. That would double immigration over a short period of time.

With the rise in A.I., an estimated 12 million Americans may have to go through “occupational transitions” over the next few years.

Instead of expanding employers’ ability to bypass American workers, Trump and the other candidates should be discussing ways to end policies like the Optional Practical Training Program that gives employers discounts for hiring foreign grads over Americans.

Immigration expansion fails to measure up against the Barbara Jordan yardstick

Barbara Jordan said, “Immigration policy must protect U.S. workers against unfair competition from foreign workers, with an appropriately higher level of protection to the most vulnerable in our society.” 

Under the Biden-Harris administration, the number of foreign-born employed over just the last year has increased by over 630,000 while the number of U.S.-born employed has decreased by 300,000. The long-term trends have been just as bad. According to a report by the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research cited by The New York Times, between 2012 and 2022, wages of foreign-born workers grew more than three times those of the U.S.-born. Those numbers include Trump’s first term in office.

We can do the work. We will do the work. We deserve an immigration policy that removes obstacles to work.

Border crackdown will have a greater benefit if immigration is reduced overall

Trump has consistently vowed to do a better job of enforcing the law at the border. Illegal immigration has grown to more than twice the level as legal immigration under the Biden-Harris administration.

We’re on track for immigration to add 35 million people over a single decade, which is what Biden proposed when he took office (only he’s doing it outside of legislative process).

If President Trump were able reduce illegal immigration back to where it was during his first administration – or to the level of the Obama administration – but simultaneously doubled green cards, there would almost no benefit to American workers, or American communities overwhelmed by the 3.5 million people immigration is adding every year. The total numbers would be about the same.

Trump’s record of supporting immigration reductions in the national interest

As a candidate in 2015, Trump ran on a plan to reduce immigration:

“Immigration moderation: Before any new green cards are issued to foreign workers abroad, there will be a pause where employers will have to hire from the domestic pool of unemployed immigrant and native workers. This will help reverse women’s plummeting workplace participation rate, grow wages, and allow record immigration levels to subside to more moderate historical averages.”

As president, Trump supported the RAISE Act, a bill that would reduce immigration by 40% by fulfilling two recommendations of the Jordan Commission: ending chain migration and the visa lottery:

“Protecting our workers also means reforming our system of legal immigration. The current, outdated system depresses wages for our poorest workers and puts great pressure on our taxpayers.”

Trump’s White House engaged in an education campaign surrounding the bill:

Trump continued to champion these reforms in his December 17, 2017 weekly address (video here):

“Ending chain migration and also ending the visa lottery will allow us to have commonsense immigration rules that promote assimilation and wage growth.”

In his January, 2018 “Presidential Message Honoring Barbara Jordan“:

“My Administration is optimistic that Republicans and Democrats in Congress will come together, for the good of our country, to pass legislation that secures our southern border with a wall, stops chain migration, and ends the visa lottery program once and for all. By doing so, we will serve American interests, secure the promise of our economy for every American citizen, and strengthen the American Dream for future generations.”

And in his April, 2017 “Presidential Executive Order on Buy American and Hire American“:

“Hire American. In order to create higher wages and employment rates for workers in the United States, and to protect their economic interests, it shall be the policy of the executive branch to rigorously enforce and administer the laws governing entry into the United States of workers from abroad, including section 212(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(5)).”

In his 2018 State of the Union Address:

“Struggling communities, especially immigrant communities, will also be helped by immigration policies that focus on the best interests of American workers and American families . . . . The United States is a compassionate nation. We are proud that we do more than any other country to help the needy, the struggling, and the underprivileged all over the world. But as President of the United States, my highest loyalty, my greatest compassion, and my constant concern is for America’s children, America’s struggling workers, and America’s forgotten communities. I want our youth to grow up to achieve great things. I want our poor to have their chance to rise.”

After 2018, a shift towards expansionism

President Trump’s 2019 State of the Union did not include any calls for lowering immigration overall. Trump did not mention the visa lottery or chain migration.

“We have a moral duty,” President Trump said, “to create an immigration system that protects the lives and jobs of our citizens.  This includes our obligation to the millions of immigrants living here today, who followed the rules and respected our laws.”

That was very Barbara Jordanesque. He went on, however, to suggest that the wage impacts of mass immigration were limited to the illegal variety.

“I want people to come into our country,” he said, “but they have to come in legally.”

Trump in 2019: “I want people to come into our country, in the largest numbers ever.”

In his 2019 State of the Union, Trump expanded on his statement from the year before, adding that he wanted legal immigration to increase to record levels.

As NumbersUSA reported later that Spring, “Pres. Trump has maintained a consistent call for increasing current, record-high immigration levels because of the strengthening economy.”

“You do need workers,” Pres. Trump said. “You have homes in Houston, and they can’t get people to build the homes—and lots of other places.”

Kushner’s plan

After his 2019 State of the Union Address, Trump put Jared Kushner in charge of drafting a bipartisan plan to overhaul immigration. Initial reports indicated the Kushner plan could “increase the number of low- and high-skilled workers admitted to the country annually.”

“It appears the consensus Kushner is focused on reaching is that immigration levels are too low,” Eric Ruark informed the NumbersUSA community.

“It is true that employers are finding it more difficult to hire new employees, which means they have to raise pay and recruit from among the 50 million working-age Americans who are still on the sidelines. Rising wages and greater labor force participation by marginalized Americans is a great thing! Now is not the time for President Trump to undo the progress made and to embrace the very immigration polices he ran against.”

When the Kushner framework was released, he had backed away from the most extreme vision of expansion. The remaining plan would have reallocated green cards while leaving the overall numbers at over one million per year – – still a reversal of the immigration-reduction promises Trump ran on.

“[T]he Kushner proposal simply shifts the pain from America’s working class to its middle class,” wrote James Bowen in Townhall. “Let’s hope President Trump revises his son-in-law’s plan and scales back overall immigration rates.”

Trump did not revise the plan, but Kushner’s proposal didn’t go anywhere and it was ultimately the pandemic that secured Trump’s campaign promise (for a time) of reducing immigration.

Bottom Line: Trump needs to clarify his position

The former president successfully ran in 2016 on an immigration-reduction platform. President Trump championed legislation to accomplish that during the first half of his term. However, the former presidents rhetoric (and some of his actions) over the past years are more aligned with the legal immigration positions of Vice President Harris and Gov. Walz, who spent their careers in Congress working to expand employers’ access to foreign labor.

On the question of credibly enforcing immigration limits, there is a clear distinction between the Republican and Democratic ticket. The difference between the two campaigns when it comes to what those limits should be may not be as different as people assume.

At the Republican National Convention, Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, declared: “We’re done importing foreign labor, we’re going to fight for American citizens and their good jobs and their good wages.” Does the top of the ticket agree?

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Related: Three Bad Ideas; The Essential Barbara Jordan; Harris’ Immigration Grade: 1% (F-Minus) – Lower Than Biden’s; VP pick Tim Walz earned a careeer “D” Immigration Grade; J.D. Vance gets an “A” from NumbersUSA, echoes Barbara Jordan in convention speech

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