America Is More Than Just GDP

by Henry Barbaro

There are countless pundits and politicians who proclaim that America’s population must grow, grow, grow. Otherwise, our economy will crash (e.g., not enough workers), and there won’t be enough people to support the elderly (e.g., pay into Social Security), join the military, pay taxes, or to keep housing values from falling.  Census data show that America’s population growth rate is decreasing, which has prompted many observers from both left and right to embrace the argument that we must rely on immigration to prevent population from declining.

For the most part these arguments emphasize supposed economic benefits of immigration. But the evidence suggests that immigration provides few if any economic benefits for the majority of Americans. For example, take the simplest measure of all — real GDP. George Borjas, a Professor of Economics and Social Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School who specializes in the economics of immigration, concludes that immigration moderately elevates total GDP (e.g., 11%), but nearly all of these benefits go to the immigrants themselves. Plus, even though immigration raises aggregate income, a disproportionate amount goes to those who hire immigrants and derive most of their income from investments. The big losers are domestic workers who can experience depressed wages, especially those with low incomes and education. In addition, taxpayers wind up paying more in welfare benefits for immigrants (discussed further below).

Ironically, those who would prefer a less regressive pattern of economic development should be calling for a decrease in immigration, not an increase. Years ago, progressives, African American leaders, and organized labor saw this clearly, and loudly demanded corrective measures. Now these same crusaders pretend to see nothing and remain silent.

Although the economic benefits of immigration-driven population growth are questionable, that is not the entire story. America’s economic prosperity is important, but so are our lifestyle, culture, liberties, opportunities, family and neighbors, and our overall quality-of-life. Many important aspects of American life cannot be assigned a dollar value. For example, what is the monetary worth of a scenic natural landscape, the call of a songbird, or peace of mind?

There’s no free lunch with population growth

America’s population growth /mass immigration is being facilitated by the short-sighted immigration policies of our federal government. But do the growth-pushers acknowledge all the unspoken sacrifices that Americans must make to accommodate persistent population growth?  The limited economic benefits of these policies should be weighed against all the other elements (combined) that make life worth living in America.

Below is an abbreviated list of the different ways that our nation’s immigration-driven population growth is costing Americans every day.

Welfare, tax burdens, and choices – Americans generally believe in providing a social safety net (e.g., welfare) for those of us in need. But this generosity cannot be applied to all of the world’s poor. Milton Friedman, a Nobel prize-winning economist (1976), argued that a welfare state and unrestricted immigration are incompatible. He believed that opening borders without dismantling the welfare state would lead to a larger, more expensive government, as low-skill immigrants would burden the system, prompting a reduction in social benefits.

Because of their low levels of skills and income, the great majority of immigrants work in low paying jobs and pay little in taxes. This is why, through social services and entitlements, immigrants receive benefits that far exceed their tax contributions. In fact, immigration brings with it a significant drain on taxpayers (the cost of illegal immigration in 2023 was approximately $150 billion).

These federal, state, and municipal tax dollars could be much better spent on enduring initiatives like ecosystem restoration and acquiring critical open spaces (e.g., critical habitat for endangered species, wildlife corridors, scenic areas, floodprone areas) for the sake of future generations. Widespread infrastructure improvements come to mind as well.

Environmental impacts — Hardly any environmental problem is not exacerbated by population growth – permanent biodiversity loss, water shortages, polluted air and water, wetlands destruction, more toxic waste, loss of open space and prime farmland from urban sprawl, depleted fisheries, and loss of wildlife habitat and wilderness.

Unless America achieves sustainability, we are doomed to forever mine our natural resources and wild habitats to the detriment of future generations.

Loss of resiliency — As America’s population expands into fragile risk-prone areas, we have witnessed the subsequent costs in property damages from the loss of “resiliency” against extreme weather events. According to Stephen Strader, a professor at Villanova University who studies how human environments are vulnerable to natural disasters, America’s unsustainable population growth along its coastlines (e.g., hurricane-prone Florida) is analogous to an “expanding bullseye effect.”  Imagine an archer taking aim at a target. If the bullseye is very small, the odds of the archer hitting it are low. But as the target grows, the archer’s odds improve. Using this metaphor, the arrows represent extreme events like hurricanes (as well as tornadoes, floods, wildfires, heat waves, and droughts), and the targets are our expanding cities.

Conservation efforts are overwhelmed — Conservation efforts can’t keep up with our America’s population growth. The resource savings realized by conservation measures are readily overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of consumers. Examples include efforts to: contain urban sprawl and/or maintain affordable housing (through in-fill development and urban growth boundaries); reduce the burning of fossil fuels (through efficient engines and alternative energy sources); reduce domestic water consumption (through leak repair, xeriscapes, modern appliances, etc.); and acquire precious open spaces while land prices are soaring out of reach for every level of government.

Infrastructure impacts – With population growth comes problems that arise when too many people try to share a public resource, such as traffic congestion, water supply shortages, waste disposal and landfill closures, lack of sewage treatment, power supply disruptions, public transportation dysfunction, and hospital and school crowding. Population growth drives the need to replace and expand this infrastructure, which includes new and widened highways, more buses and trains, river diversions and dams, water supply wells, trash incinerators, new sewage treatment plants and power plants, new and expanded hospitals and schools.

Social cohesion — One of our biggest challenges as a nation, is to promote and preserve social cohesion. However, too much immigration too quickly can lead to balkanization and a loss of trust among American communities.

America is a national community with fundamental values that go far beyond the state of our economy. We have a unique history and culture – we insist on having liberty, along with justice, freedom of speech, as well as a sense of place, and loyalty to America. However, these binding values are not necessarily shared by immigrants from different cultures, speaking different languages, which means social integration is more difficult.

America’s waning majestic beauty – Americans feel a connection to America’s majestic natural beauty – our “natural heritage.”  This includes vast areas of wilderness, as well as access to local open spaces. Americans are captivated by charismatic wildlife. They sing about spacious skies and purple mountain majesties.

But as our population grows, and urban areas expand across America, we are losing our ability to enjoy nature’s beauty. Our national parks were the first in the world, and serve as a tangible link to our nation’s history. However, our parks are not immune to the impacts of our country’s soaring population. Every year, millions of Americans try to experience these most precious and beloved natural wonders, but are greeted with long wait times, traffic jams, crowding, and trampled hiking trails. Sadly, just the opposite of experiencing a quiet place to commune with nature.

The trends are clear – open spaces, especially our majestic national parks – are being “loved to death.”  Our nation’s parks and beaches simply cannot keep up with the demand.

Quality of Life – With each passing year, Americans lose opportunities to find serene and pastoral places to escape from the din of society. This is tragic because open space and natural areas provide relaxation along with mental and physical health benefits. Exploring or even just gazing upon natural areas gives people a sense of perspective, spiritual renewal, well-being, and a feeling of harmony with the world around us.

Nature’s power to rejuvenate the human spirit has been known for many generations. Our nation’s early “transcendentalists” (beginning in the 1830’s), such as Ralph Waldo Emerson and Henry David Thoreau, saw nature as “a mirror reflecting the divine” and a place where individuals could find truth, beauty, and freedom. Indeed, America’s legendary conservationists (e.g., John Muir, Aldo Leopold, Gifford Pinchot, Teddy Roosevelt) acknowledged that contact with nature is a paramount part of nurturing the soul and spirit of mankind. As mentioned above, reverence of nature’s grandeur is one of America’s most distinctive values (one that is not universally shared by people from other cultures).

Conclusion

The media would lead us to believe that economic growth cannot be achieved without relentless population growth. However, we can grow our economy by using education and technology to increase productivity. In addition, with slower population growth, we can make progress toward resolving economic and environmental issues while boosting our productivity, and quality of life, as a nation. Moreover, to most Americans, economic value is not the only factor that determines what is important in life.

Hopefully, as the world’s fertility rates decline, America will one day serve as an example of true sustainability by demonstrating that perpetual population growth is not necessary for a society to achieve and maintain economic vitality.