The Congressional Budget Office has released its analysis of the Schumer-Rubio-Obama amnesty bill, confirming the opponent's predictions that it would be devastating for American workers and would not end illegal immigration. Since the bill purposely delays green cards for some illegal aliens by 10 years, and the CBO only scores the fiscal impacts for the bill's first 10 years, the report says that the bill will not have a major impact on the national debt over the first decade.
The CBO report does, however, indicate that unemployment will increase under S.744 as result of work permits issued to illegal aliens, increased levels of legal immigration, and increases in guest-worker programs.
CBO and JCT expect that new immigrants of working age would participate in the labor force at a higher rate, on average, than other people in that age range in the United States. Relative to CBO's projections under current law, enacting the bill would increase the size of the labor force by about 6 million (about 3½ percent) in 2023 and by about 9 million (about 5 percent) in 2033, CBO and JCT estimate. Employment would increase as the labor force expanded, because the additional population would add to demand for goods and services and, in turn, to the demand for labor. However, temporary imbalances in the skills and occupations demanded and supplied in the labor market, as well as other factors, would cause the unemployment rate to be slightly higher for several years than projected under current law.
-- Congressional Budget Office, "The Economic Impact of S.744", page 4
The CBO estimate also found that S.744 would decrease wages for American workers.
As the labor supply initially increased under the legislation, less capital would be available for each worker to produce output, and thus workers' output, on average, would be lower for a time. That decline would reduce average wages relative to those under current law.
-- Congressional Budget Office, "The Economic Impact of S.744", page 5
Finally, the CBO report indicates that S.744 will have little effect on decreasing illegal immigration. The Gang of Eight insists that their bill will end illegal immigration, but the bill actually weakens current law. The Senate rejected two amendments on Tuesday that would have required the federal government to enforce existing laws before illegal aliens could receive amnesty.
Future Unauthorized Residents. The enforcement and employment verification requirements in the legislation would probably reduce the size of the U.S. population by restricting the future flow of unauthorized residents. Unauthorized residents would find it harder both to enter the country and to find employment while unauthorized. However, other aspects of the bill would probably increase the number of unauthorized residents—in particular, people overstaying their visas issued under the new programs for temporary workers. CBO estimates that, under the bill, the net annual flow of unauthorized residents would decrease by about 25 percent relative to what would occur under current law, resulting in a reduction in the U.S. population (including a reduction in the number of children born in the United States) relative to that benchmark of 1.6 million in 2023 and 2.5 million in 2033.
-- CBO Cost Estimate
Originally Published: Tue, Jun 18th 2013 @ 5:54pm EDT