Poll: Most Americans Don’t Want Continuing
Large U.S. Population Growth

 As Nation Hits 300 Million Milestone, Voters Prefer
Reduced Immigration Over Adding Another 100 Million

Commentary by Roy Beck *

Washington D.C. (October 3, 2006) – Passing the 300-million milestone for U.S. population this month apparently is no cause for celebration for the majority of American voters.

A survey of 1,000 likely voters nationally, conducted Sep. 18-24 by The Polling Company/Woman Trend (and released today), reveals great discomfort about the rapid U.S. population growth being caused by federal immigration policies.

The poll raises intriguing questions about the political calculations of most U.S. Senators and President Bush who have been trying to increase the rate of immigration and U.S. population growth this year.

• 66% of likely American voters believethe population growth being caused by the present level of immigration will “negatively impact the quality of life in America, such as causingmore congestion, overcrowding and pollution,” according to the poll.

Fears About Their Own Community

The Census Bureau projects that, if current immigration rates are allowed to continue, the country will add well over 100 million additional residents by mid-century, with most of the growth caused by immigration.

Voters were asked how the quality of life where they live would be changed if their community’s population were to grow at the same rate (one-third) as is expected for the nation under current immigration rates. The majority of American voters overwhelmingly say it would worsen their quality of life. This is true for:

• Hispanics: By a 6-1 ratio, they say quality of life where they live would be made worse rather than made better by such population growth.

• Blacks: By a 9-1 ratio, they fear worse over better (about the same as the 9 ½ -1 ratio for Whites).

• All Political Affiliations: Democrats expect the population growth will make things worse over better by 7-1. The ratio is 10-1 for Independents, and 14-1 for Republicans.

• Every Region of the Country: The survey divided the United States into nine regions. Regardless of the population density, voters in each region appear to much prefer their current level of population over significantly more growth. Not surprisingly, voters in the congested Mid-Atlantic states say one-third more growth would make the quality of life worse over better by a 13-1 ratio. But even voters in the northern Great Plains say worse over better by a 10-1 ratio.  

Voters vs. U.S. Senate

The poll results suggest the possibility of an interesting reception for many U.S. Senators as they return to their home states to campaign for re-election.

The majority of Senators voted in May to more than double current immigration rates – which would dramatically increase the rate of population growth even higher. (The House of Representatives, however, refused to consider the immigration increases.)

The Senators’ immigration bill would have forced a level of population growth that the poll shows almost no Americans prefer.

• According to the poll, fewer than 12% of voters think even current population growth rates would improve their quality of life – whether they are professionals, white-collar or blue-collar workers, whether they have part-time jobs or no jobs. This is also true regardless of the voter’s age, income or marital status.

There simply is no real voting constituency for the kind of forced population growth being sought by the majority of Democrats and minority of Republicans in the U.S. Senate and by the Republican White House, based on the poll results.

• In fact, the poll indicates that two-thirds of Americans would prefer that Congress reduce population two- growth by reducing annual immigration numbers – the opposite of the Senate’s attempts this year.

What Voters Support Immigration Increases?

Who in America supports increasing immigration (and thus population growth) as do the majority of U.S. Senators?

The poll asked this question: “If immigration continues at its current level for the next 50 years, experts estimate that it will add approximately 100 million people to the United States population, which currently is 300 million. Knowing this, would you say the country needs to reduce the number of immigrants entering the U.S., increase the number of immigrants entering the U.S., or keep the number of immigrants entering the U.S. the same?”

• Only 3% of all likely voters say they support increasing the number of immigrants, in response to that question.

• While nearly all Democratic Senators voted to more than double annual immigration by more than a million, the poll finds only 2% of likely Democratic voters want higher immigration.

• And, while Sen. McCain, Sen. Brownback, Sen. Frist and others who have shown interest in running for the Republican presidential nomination have championed ever higher immigration levels, only 2% of likely Republican voters this fall seem to want the same thing.

• As for swing-voting Independents, the Senators can look to 4% of those voters who say they want more immigration in light of population growth trends.

• While many pundits have said Senators were appealing to the much-sought Hispanic vote by passing big immigration increases, the poll finds only 5% of likely Hispanic votersprefer an increase in immigration, when considering the effect on population growth.

• Black Americans in this poll prefer immigration reductions over immigration increases by an astounding 72-1 ratio.

How a voter responds to a poll usually depends on the context. Most polls, however worded, find little support for immigration increases, rarely going higher than 12% or 15% of Americans. But this poll – commissioned by the Center for Immigration Studies – suggests that, when voters think about the population consequences of immigration, support for higher immigration almost disappears.

This sensitivity of Americans about population growth – as revealed in The Polling Company/Woman Trend survey – is remarkable since the public hears almost nothing said about the issue from major politicians, news media or non-profit groups. The concern about population growth as uncovered by this poll suggests an intrinsic level of uncertainty and unease among American voters that very few political figures appear to have understood or tapped.

Roy Beck is the author of “Re-Charting America’s Future” about the population and environmental consequences of immigration. He reported on population issues as a newspaper journalist in the 1960s, ‘70s, ‘80s and 90s before becoming President of NumbersUSA Education & Research Foundation (www.NumbersUSA.com).

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Notes On The Poll  

• Field Dates:  September 18-24, 2006
• Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters Nationally, conducted by the Polling Company for the Center for Immigration Studies.
• Margin of Error: ± 3%, margin of error is higher for subgroups. 
• the polling company(tm), inc./WomanTrend, 1220 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, 202-667-6557, www.pollingcompany.com

See Attachments for Questions A, B & C

Attachments show crosstabs for 34 demographic groupings in the survey.

“Have Kids” and “Don’t Have Kids” categories refer to having children under the age of 18 in the home.

Income categories refer to “family income.” 

Regions Used In Survey

New England:

CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT, 

Mid-Atlantic:

NJ, NY, PA

East North Central:

IL, IN, MI, OH, WI,

West North Central:

IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD, 

South Atlantic:

DE, DC, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV,

East South Central:

AL, KY, MS, TN, 

West South Central:

AR, LA, OK, TX    

Mountain:

AZ, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, UT, WY, 

Pacific:

AK, CA, HI, OR, WA 

Records of Senators in Pushing Higher U.S. Population Growth

A grading system and record of all past immigration actions for each Member of Congress can be found at www.CongressGrades.org.

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